Catch a steam move before the market finishes correcting.

We poll pre-match prices continuously across 50+ bookmakers and keep three numbers for every drop we are tracking: the opening price the move started from, the lowest point it has reached, and the price on screen right now. That triplet is the whole reading. A headline percentage on its own tells you a number changed; opening-versus-current tells you how much of the move is still available to you.

A tracked drop carries a state as well as a size. While the price keeps shortening it reads as dropping. When it gives back a meaningful share of the move it is marked rebounding — the signal is still real, but the window is closing rather than opening. If the price returns to where the move began, the trend is retired outright rather than left in the feed as a zero-percent row until kickoff; a genuine new move re-detects from a fresh baseline.

Liquidity and limit changes are tracked alongside the price, because they are what separate a move you can act on from one you can only watch. A large drop on a book that has quietly cut its maximum stake is a different object from the same drop at full limits.

The opening price does more work in that triplet than it appears to. It is the anchor the whole move is measured against, which is why a trend that climbs back to it is retired rather than kept on as a nominal zero — without a meaningful baseline, a percentage is a number with no claim attached. It is also what separates a move that has run its course from one that has barely started, which is the distinction that actually governs what you do next.

A drop presents two reasonable responses and no automatic one. Take the current price and accept that the move may continue without you, or wait for the line to settle and accept that the value may be gone. Which is right depends on how much of the move has already happened, whether limits are holding, and how quickly your bookmaker accepts a stake at the displayed number.

The one thing worth being disciplined about is the gap between the alert and the price. Latency is real and never zero: the number in a notification is the number at the moment of sending, not the moment of reading. Calibrate against what is on the board now, not against the headline.

There is a third response, and it is underrated: do nothing. A move you did not anticipate, in a market you do not usually price, is information about the market rather than an invitation to participate in it. Watching a drop play out and checking your read against what happened costs nothing and improves the next judgement.

Coverage is pre-match only, across football, basketball, tennis and ice hockey. There is no in-play product, and this page is not describing one.

The signal does not read identically across those four. Tennis prices move faster and on thinner information than football; basketball totals react hard to confirmed injury news. The mechanism is the same everywhere, but what counts as a notable move is not.

Football and ice hockey sit at opposite ends of the same spectrum. A football market carries deep liquidity and a long pre-match window, so moves tend to be gradual and well supported; a hockey line can shift hard on a goaltender confirmation an hour before puck drop, on far less money behind it. Reading a percentage without knowing which of those you are looking at is how a thin-market artefact gets mistaken for sharp action.